The NIWA and MetService assessment of named tropical cyclone (TC) activity indicates 8 to 10 named TCs could occur in the Southwest Pacific basin between November 2020 and April 2021. Although Saturday would clear and a high of 21C is predicted, further rain would set in on Sunday. TC tracks for past seasons similar to our expectations covered a wide region both east and west of and including the International Date Line (~165°E – 165°W) during extra-tropical transition (ETT) exiting the tropics at 25°S latitude (Diamond et al., 2013). The front will move slowly and bring scattered showers to some places before weakening on Friday. Near normal activity is forecast to extend from the Solomon Islands to Niue (including Fiji and Tonga) with pockets of below normal activity farther to the east (Samoa, American Samoa, Cook Islands). Analysis of tropical cyclone track sinuosity in the South Pacific region using ARCGIS. Mr Meke said Uesi was currently a category two cyclone with winds of up 95 km/hr. NIWA says elevated tropical cyclone presence is expected in and around the Coral Sea and north Tasman Sea, especially during the late season between February and April. As with most years, TC activity is expected to increase during the second half of the season from February-April. The wage subsidy and retail: Which stores got it and who has paid it back. Photo: Otwaydundee. safe cyclone holes in New Caledonia and try to get from locals and other cruisers precise directions on how to get into them. The dynamical guidance generally agrees with the analogue guidance for TC count and severity, but has two distinct clusters of above normal amounts of activity (Coral Sea and south of Vanuatu and Fiji). This seasonal outlook is for normal to below normal activity in terms of overall named cyclone systems in the region. Track data are courtesy of International Best Tracks Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS). Classification of synchronous oceanic and atmospheric El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events for palaeoclimate reconstruction. That warm weather would mostly affect those in the North Island, as a cold front moves over the South Island on Thursday. For each year noted, that represents the start of the main development season (i.e. Previous TC research has indicated cyclone track sinuosity reduces during La Niña (Philip Malsale, 2011). The outlook suggests New Caledonia should prepare for stronger cyclone activity. It would then be followed by another ridge of high pressure, just in time for the weekend. In addition, TC activity is expected to be elevated across the north-central Tasman Sea region, encompassing the maritime area near Norfolk Island and to the northwest of New Zealand. Having no insurance for the boat meant that all our material possessions were at stake, not mentioning the risk of getting hurt, or even worst. New Caledonia Cyclone Rona–Frank affected two thirds of New Caledonia's Grande Terre island between 20–21 February. Malsale, P. 2011. There's been a mixed bag of weather across the country recently. It's not yet clear whether any remnants of tropical cyclone Uesi will make it to New Zealand. MetService meteorologist Andrew James said Uesi was upgraded to a category 3 cyclone on Tuesday and was being monitored by Fiji's Meteorological Service. Category 5 strength cyclones, where sustained winds exceed 199 km/h, have occurred in some years (known as ‘analogue’ seasons) with similar conditions like what exists ahead of the 2020/21 season. Atmospheric circulation patterns over French Polynesia and northern Australia indicate ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) conditions are indicative of the emergence of La Niña. Tropical Cyclone Oma is predicted to produce heavy surf affecting the coasts of Australia, New Caledonia, and Vanuatu as of Monday, February 18. Increased frequency and more intense TC activity can be expected during the MJO 6-7 paired phase (Diamond and Renwick, 2015). Tropical Cyclone Uesi recently formed near Vanuatu and is expected to near New Caledonia … For Christchurch, there would be fine weather up until Friday when some showers set in. On average, at least one ex-tropical cyclone passes within 550km of New Zealand each year. This joint ENSO index is described in Gergis and Fowler (2005) as the “Coupled ENSO Index” (CEI). Lorrey, A.M., G. Griffiths, N. Fauchereau, H.J. Bushfires are a risk from September to February. The outlook for the region to the east of the International Date Line largely shows reduced risk overall, but small areas of increased TC track numbers clustered near the International Date Line close to Fiji. Indications for upcoming TC activity based on these joint methods that cover the SW Pacific basin for the 2020/21 season are stated in the “ICU Consensus” column and are also shown in Figure 1. In addition, subjective qualification of activity (and associated risk) also recognises the small differences between the actual TC counts for the analogue composites and climatological values. The Noumea, New Caledonia tropical storm risk chart above shows the cyclone season. Similar situations from 1969 to the present were then identified from the historical record. Image (c) Fiji Met Service. Chappell, and J. Renwick, 2014. Individuals present in New Caledonia are advised to monitor local weather reports and follow all instructions as issued by local authorities (e.g. In the Pacific Islands, please contact your local national meteorological service for information about how this guidance should be interpreted. "NZ should remain vigilant as the cyclone season unfolds. for the early TC season “1970” = November 1970, December 1970, January 1971; and for the late TC season “1970” = February – April 1971). They can cause landslides and flooding, and may disrupt essential services. A Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone climatology and linkages to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Cyclones are usually formed from November to mid-May, though they are most likely from late December to early April. Be aware that New Caledonia can be hit by active tropical cyclones or storms, but such severe weather events remain unpredictable and relatively rare, mostly occurring between February and April. A split of the analogue TC seasons into early (November – January) and late (February – April) periods suggests TC activity will be diminished relative to normal for the early part of the TC season, except near the north Coral Sea (Figure 4). NB: The ECMWF forecast domain for ACE is from 160˚E to 120˚W. Based on the guidance from the NIWA analogue method, a conservative range of 8-10 named TCs could be expected during the 2020/21 season for the Southwest Pacific basin (135° E – 120° W). Elevated activity is expected in the Coral Sea offshore of Queensland, between the Solomon Islands and New Caledonia, and in the north-central Tasman Sea (including Norfolk Island). NIWA, MetService, MeteoFrance, BoM, NOAA and Pacific Island National Meteorological Services will all continue to track the progression of ENSO and TC activity, with an update to this guidance in January 2021 if needed. There is an equal probability of a decaying ex-tropical cyclone tracking to the east or west of the North Island based on historic track data (Figure 3). A category 3 cyclone has mean winds between 64-85 knots (118-157kmh) with a central pressure 970-945 hectopascals, Fiji's Meteorological Service states on its website. NIWA’s Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook zeros in on New Caledonia as the focal point for TC genesis this season. Cyclone Cook has formed over Vanuatu and is predicted to intensify to category three as it approaches New Caledonia on Monday. Our new tool, the Long-Range Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Southwest Pacific , will assist forecasters and help local authorities to prepare for the coming season’s cyclone activity. On average, New Zealand usually experiences at least one interaction per season with an ex-tropical cyclone. However James said it's not yet clear exactly where the tropical cyclone was heading. Multi-model ensemble forecast air pressure anomaly (hPa), October-December 2020; red (blue) shades indicate above (below) normal air pressure; areas of below normal pressure in the tropics can indicate an increased potential for tropical cyclone genesis, Figure 8. TCs in the Southwest Pacific usually develop between November and April, but occasionally they develop in October and May, and very rarely in June – August. The new … New Caledonia also experiences earthquakes, tsunamis and bushfires. The South Pacific’s third major tropical cyclone this season is already bringing strong to gale force winds and heavy rainfall to Vanuatu, with New Caledonia likely to receive a direct hit later in the week. 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Early season TC activity is expected to be largely reduced, except near Fiji, and a potential start to cyclone activity may also occur close to or after the New Year. For the coming season, the risk for an ex-tropical cyclone affecting New Zealand is considered above normal. There is relatively low disagreement between the analogues for the total number of cyclones for this season, with the one exception being the 2007/08 season. Map plotting the track and the intensity of the storm, according to ... Cook subsequently made landfall on the Grande Terre Island of New Caledonia, between Houaïlou and Kouaoua at around 04:00 UTC (15:00 NCT) on April 10 where it started weakening due to frictional forces. The highest cyclone frequency is found in the months from January to March. For the selected analogues, all of the analogue years show at least one ex-tropical cyclone came within 550 km of New Zealand. On average, nearly half of the TCs that developed since the 1969/70 season have reached at least category 3 cyclones with mean wind speeds of at least 64 knots (118 km/h). Unpublished MSc Thesis, University of the South Pacific, 155 Pages. Originally, the storm moved … Table 1: Island Climate Update (ICU) consensus outlook for November 2020-April 2021 tropical cyclone activity based on combining NIWA analogue model, international dynamical climate model and TCO-SP deterministic statistical model outlook results. For the historical TC tracks in the seasons we have selected as analogues, there is a very large spread for the location where each system underwent ETT that presents significant uncertainties for maritime navigation risks. Some cloud was expected to increase on the weekend. Based on seasons with similar background climate conditions to the present, TC activity in the coming season is expected to be elevated around the Coral Sea between the Queensland coast and New Caledonia. The chart was processed from data supplied by the US Meteorological Agency (NOAA). The ICU consensus column is based on the combined outcomes for the three aforementioned types of seasonal outlook information. The Severe Tropical Cyclone #Uesi is now a Category 3 system and looks fairly impressive on the satellite scans, with textbook outflow upper-level ventilation. Most historic seasons used in the preparation of this outlook showed multiple ex-tropical cyclones passing within 550 km of the country. A southward displacement of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is typically observed during La Niña and the model guidance is supportive of this shift. TC intensity is partly related to how long developing cyclonic systems reside in the tropics and gain support for their growth from underlying warm waters. Be aware: New Caledonia can be hit by active tropical cyclones or storms but such severe weather events remain unpredictable and relatively rare and mostly occur between February and April. Please be sure to comply with any instructions you may be given. However, New Caledonia does experience a cyclone season from the end of November to May, with February to April being the most dangerous time. Peak TC season in the SW Pacific Basin is usually from January to March. The season lasts from November 1 to April 30, and comprises about 10 tropical cyclones in that period - only one of which will affect New Zealand on average, MetService says. Cyclone season in the region typically lasts from November to April but storms can occur outside this period. Earlier forecasts from Fiji indicated that the tropical cyclone would strengthen to category 3, before tracking south and then weakening. As such, the tropical cyclone guidance for November 2020 to April 2021 is built on the five remaining analogue seasons identified above. Two of the five analogue years experienced at least one category 5 tropical cyclone, which we cannot rule out for this coming season. b Average TC counts calculated for November-April TC season. The interplay of hemispheric-scale atmospheric circulation with the timing of short-term Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity on a 30 to 50-day cycle has significant bearing on regional TC activity. The predicted track of Tropical Cyclone Uesi is towards New Caledonia. Wheeler, 2008. New Caledonia weather and climate Whether your stay in New Caledonia falls during the hot season or the cool season, you can be sure of a delightful semi-tropical climate, with temperatures and sunshine guaranteed to make your holiday perfect! Severe Tropical Cyclone Freda was an intense tropical cyclone that developed during the 2012–13 South Pacific cyclone season and affected New Caledonia and the Solomon Islands as a weak tropical cyclone. Summary of analogue, dynamical and deterministic guidance for the ICU TC outlook. The table is therefore only generally indicative of how many cyclones might be expected for any given island group for the coming season. Figure 4: Early season (November to January; top panel) and late season (February to April; bottom panel) anomaly plots for selected TC analogue seasons (data courtesy of International Best Tracks Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS). Heading back to the SW Pacific Islands from Australia. Tropical cyclone season is upon us and a new storm is brewing in the South Pacific. Category:Tropical cyclones in New Caledonia. We have subjectively rounded the total mean count upward from 8.2 to 9 this season to include the possibility of a category 5 cyclone based on current conditions and expected outcomes for the coming season. Figure 2: Number of TCs occurring for the main development season (November – April) in the Southwest Pacific (135°E to 120°W): (top panel) average number during 1981 to 2010 (normal); (centre panel) average number over selected five analogue seasons (Table 3); (bottom panel) departure from normal for the analogue seasons (difference between count in centre and top panels). Mr Meke said Uesi was currently a category two cyclone with winds of up 95 … In the 50 years since Cyclone … The method is calibrated using the IBTrACS data set and several key climate indices for the Southern Hemisphere (see Magee et al., 2020 and the supplementary material for more details). Wellington would also have a mostly fine week, with temperatures ranging between 19C-23C. evacuation orders). Diamond, H.J., A.M. Lorrey, and J.A. See https://tcoutlook.com/swpacific/ for more details related to this part of the outlook. It was also too early to tell whether any possible remnants could impact New Zealand, but he said there was no threat to the country this week. The climatological relationship between tropical cyclones in the southwest Pacific and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The main TC genesis region is expected to lie within a band between 10 – 12°S (northwest of Vanuatu) to the west of the International Date Line but shifted slightly west of normal. Expected TC numbers are based on the NIWA Analogue method (see Table 2) and supported by the TCO-SP deterministic method. Four of the five historic analogue seasons indicate more than one cyclone of category 4 strength or higher could occur. Developed by a … Figure 3: Plots of TC tracks and major tropical lows that were monitored for analogue seasons used in the 2020/21 seasonal forecast for the full season (November - April). The new model could improve early warnings, support advanced disaster management preparedness and save lives during the Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone season.. Diamond, H.J., A.M. Lorrey, K.R. Auckland was forecast to have a mostly fine week, with high temperatures reaching between 24-26 degrees Celsius. The ICU consensus column is based on the combined outcomes for the three aforementioned types of seasonal outlook information. Get up to date information on storms, cyclones and other weather events in the New Caledonia region. It was expected to pass close to New Caledonia during the day and overnight on Tuesday, bringing squally rainfall, gusty winds, and rough seas. The outcomes from this type of situation may include stronger ex-tropical cyclone impacts to northern New Zealand. Language; Watch; Edit; Pages in category "Tropical cyclones in New Caledonia" The following 22 pages are in this category, out of 22 total. The spatial anomalies shown for this TC outlook strongly indicate reduced risk of cyclones for American Samoa, French Polynesia, and the Cook Islands. More about tropical storms The consensus forms the basis for the full season (November-April) outlook for Southwest Pacific TC activity (and risk) for the 2020/21 season. Mr. Chris NobleManager, Severe Weather ServicesTCWC (Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre) WellingtonMetService New ZealandTel: +64 4 470 1175. Vanuatu and New Caledonia typically experience the greatest TC activity, with an average of about two or three named cyclones passing close to those islands each year. Articles. The NIWA and MetService assessment of named tropical cyclone (TC) activity indicates 8 to 10 named TCs could occur in the Southwest Pacific basin between November 2020 and April 2021. According to its current predictions, Tonga should expect one or two cyclones for the upcoming cyclone season (December – April). Level 1 alerts are in place for Boulouparis, Païta, Dumbéa, Nouméa, Mont-Dore, and Ile des Pins. For the coming 2020/21 season, the deterministic TCO-SP outlook for Southwest Pacific TC season suggests 9 named TCs will form (probable range of 7-10), indicating normal to below normal activity for the basin when compared with the 1981-2010 average of 11.4 TCs (Table 4 and Figure 9). Expected TC count including probable range (95% confidence intervals) for the 2020/21 Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season based on TCO-SP (Magee et al., 2020). "Between New Caledonia and Australia - Queensland, in particular - usually we get pretty big seasons in La Nina years." A tsunami can arrive within minutes of a tremor or earthquake. By night, it can cool down to below 60°F. An analysis of past TC tracks in the SW Pacific indicate they are exceptionally unlikely in September, although one system recently formed during this time. In many cases they’ll spend the best part of their short-lived existence tucked away inside the swell … A new tropical cyclone outlook model will generate much earlier predictions for the number of tropical cyclones than current models used in Pacific Island countries, says the University of Newcastle in Australia. From November to April, cyclones … International Journal of Climatology, 35: 676-686. doi: 10.1002/joc.4012. However the south of the South Island is still assessing flood damage after widespread flooding caused by torrential rain last week. This guidance is useful for sub-seasonal regional tropical cyclone guidance (see http://www.meteo.nc/espro/previcycl/cyclA.php.) Advice. A tsunami can arrive within minutes of a tremor or earthquake. Kiwis can expect hot, dry weather for the next few days due to a ridge of high pressure lingering over the country until about Sunday, James said. Analogue, dynamical and deterministic model guidance for the SW Pacific show relatively good agreement for the coming season (Table 1). Cyclone level 2 alerts are in effect for the communes of Houaïlou, Kouaoua, Canala, Thio, Yaté, Ouvéa, Lifou, and Maré. A potential combination of 3-4 cyclones may reach severe category 3 or higher status. Several analogues identified also did not see the first named cyclone of the season until the New Year. The rounded average interaction for New Zealand with an ex-tropical cyclone is two named systems per season. The historic long-term seasonal average is just over 10 named cyclones for the SW Pacific basin. Advice. Although it's possible Uesi would move into the Tasman Sea, it's not yet clear whether New Zealand would be affected by any remnants of it as an ex-tropical cyclone. Reduced TC activity is expected east of the International Dateline. Cold season in New Caledonia brings daytime temperatures to around 75°F (24 °C)—less than ideal for beach-goers but perfect for hikers. After that, there were earlier suggestions it could move into the Tasman Sea. Often, its weather is compared to that of the south of France. Knapp, and D.H. Levinson, 2012. 0–9. Collectively, this supports a near normal number of TCs (category 1 or higher) and at least a near normal amount of severe TCs (category 3 or higher) across the Southwest Pacific basin for the 2020/21 tropical cyclone season. Weekly statistical forecasts of TC genesis and TC activity for the SW Pacific basin are produced by MeteoFrance based on phasing of the MJO (Leroy and Wheeler, 2008). This is the first year the Long-Range Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Southwest Pacific (TCO-SP) product is available and we have incorporated it into the ICU outlook to produce a consensus outlook. TCO-SP also provides a different view from analogue and dynamical approaches. "NZ should remain vigilant as the cyclone season unfolds. The cyclone season in the Pacific is usually between October and May, but cyclones can occur at other times. Leroy, A., and M.C. This provides confidence in the statistical outlook for expected cyclone strengths, and support for a conservative range of 3-4 severe tropical cyclones for this outlook. Tropical cyclone Uesi will near New Caledonia on Tuesday. Cyclone Uesi is Tracking just west of New Caladonia gusty and strong winds and large waves will better the island. However, it is worth noting that the 2020 October-initialised guidance indicates more severe TC activity than the October-initialised guidance before each of the last three TC seasons. Indicative of how many cyclones might be expected during the warm season, the Solomon Islands and New. With temperatures ranging between 19C-23C b ) brings daytime temperatures to around 75°F ( 24 )... 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